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My Predictions for Harrisonburg and Rockingham’s 2023 Market

Brad Cohen January 5, 2023

My 2023 predictions for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham markets.
2022 brought us a shifting housing market. What started out as a red-hot double-digit price appreciation market slowed dramatically in June when we saw mortgage interest rates double over the second half of the year. We watched a complete shift from what we’ve been living through for the last two years, and it has left a lot of people confused about what we can expect from 2023.
I want to give you some predictions about the 2023 housing market, but you should know that everything that I’m predicting about the housing market depends on mortgage interest rates. I believe that we have seen the peak for mortgage interest rates, and I expect that they’re going to stabilize. That said, it depends on what happens with inflation and a potential impending recession.
“We’re going to see fewer home sales because of overall market trends.”
For home sales, my prediction is that we are going to see fewer home sales than in 2022, which is also going to be a decline from the preceding two years. I believe we will return to a more normal market, comparable to 2019.
National experts are disputing what’ll happen with prices, and it’s going to vary market by market. Some are saying that prices will appreciate at a modest level and others are saying that they’ll depreciate. I think Harrisonburg and Rockingham have their own spot in the market, and here’s why: Rockingham is still a growing market with an inventory problem. There is still a supply and demand issue that’ll probably cause prices to increase.
However, due to the rising mortgage interest rates, don’t expect to see double-digit appreciation as we have over the last couple of years. If we see rates come down, then it’s possible that we could see a greater rate of appreciation. I expect that we’ll see a more normal rate of appreciation again, comparable to what we saw in 2018 and 2019, to the tune of probably 4% or 5%.
Those are my predictions for the 2023 housing market. I expect a modest appreciation in values because of our local market conditions, but we’ll likely see fewer home sales because of overall market trends and mortgage interest rates. If you’re thinking about making a move in 2023 or if you have any questions, reach out to me by phone or email and we’ll talk about your options.

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