2026 Vision: The Year of the "Educated Move"

If you spent the last week of 2025 in the "liminal space" (pajamas, leftovers, and deep thoughts about your floor plan), welcome back to the light.

It’s officially 2026. The calendar has flipped, and the Harrisonburg real estate market is waking up with some actually good news. We aren't doing crystal balls this year; we’re doing data.

We’ve been diving into the latest forecasts from BAM (Broke Agent Media), NAR, and the NAHB. The common thread? 2026 isn't about a "boom" or a "crash"—it's about a return to a market that actually makes sense for humans.

1. The Mortgage Rate "Drift"

One of the most useful things we’ve seen in the recent forecasts is that we shouldn't expect a cliff-dive in rates. Instead, we're looking at a slow drift.

• The Prediction: Most experts expect the 30-year fixed rate to average in the low 6% range (around 6.3%) for the year.

• The Reality Check: While 3% is gone, 6.3% is a massive improvement over the 7%+ peaks we saw last year. It’s enough of a "thaw" to help buyers get moving again.

2. Affordability: Wages are Winning

This is a huge data point for 2026: For the first time in years, wages are growing faster than home prices.

• The Shift: Home prices in stable areas like Rockingham County are projected to rise modestly (around 1-2%). Meanwhile, household incomes are climbing at a faster clip.

• The Result: Your "buying power" is finally catching up. It’s a slow recovery, but it’s a real one.

3. The Builder Edge (Incentives are Here)

If you’ve been eyeing a new build, the NAHB report shows that builders are feeling more optimistic—but they’re still working for your business.

• The Perks: About 67% of builders are currently offering incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs.

• The Strategy: If you want a lower rate today, new construction in the Valley might be your fastest path.

4. Inventory: Choice is Coming Back

We’re heading into 2026 with more active listings than we’ve seen in a long time—projected to be up about 9%.

• The Buyer Win: You might actually get to see three houses in one day. You might get to keep your inspection contingency. You might even get to sleep on a decision.

The Connexa Take: Play the Board

Of course, only time will tell. But we’re calling 2026 the year of the Educated Move. You don't have to be a victim of the market anymore; you can play the board.

At Connexa, we’re using this data to make sure your move is strategic. Whether you’re a first-timer or a seasoned seller, we’re here to help you navigate the numbers so you can focus on the "Home" part.

Ready to see where your home fits in the 2026 market? Let’s grab a coffee and look at the actual numbers for your neighborhood.